Economist:

hihozeima.blogspot.com
Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist for , said in a reportg this week that “after back-to-back declines in real GDP of more than 6percenyt (annual rates), the period of economic free-fall seems Despite the prospects for an end to the Gault points out that a rapid recovery is not in the after such an extreme global financial shock. “Itr remains premature to suppose that the financial system has been We expecta 3.1 percent decline in GDP for the less severe than our April forecast of 3.5 percent, followedf by a 1.5 percent rebound in 2010,“ the report Gault noted that consumer spendinb beat forecasts in the firsgt quarter by gaining 2.
2 percent, following its 4 percentt plunge in the second half of 2008, but spendinb will likely remain flat, at through the end of 2009. As for the housingy market, Gault notes that despite the fact that residential construction had its steepest decline so far duringf this downturn in thefirsy quarter, the outlook is improving. “Most key indicators of housingactivity (home sales, housinbg starts and permits) are showing signds of stabilization, based upon dramaticallyg improved affordability — for those who can qualify for credit.
Even thouggh there will be a delay after housing starts hit botto m until residential construction spending starts to the latter should occurby year-end,” he wrote. Regarding the energt sector, Gault said drilling activit has not yet finished itsdownwarcd trend, but is closwe to the bottom. Like the rest of the economy’ss prospects when the slow recovery beginsin 2010, Gaulty does not expect energy pricexs to spike quickly as some recent reports have Oil prices will average $46 a barrelk this year, he suggests, rising only to an average of $54 in 2010 and wouled not move past $75 until 2012.